2025: The Reset Year — And Why 2026 Sets Up as a Year of Recovery

Market Update December 2025 VADIM VILENSKY December 31, 2025

2025: The Reset Year — And Why 2026 Sets Up as a Year of Recovery

December played out exactly as expected for this point in the cycle — seasonally slow, with buyers conserving powder for the new year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales edged down slightly from November while the average price ticked marginally higher, continuing the stabilization pattern that emerged in October. The market ended 2025 below the $1,007,000 average — but critically, prices did not crater. The correction was orderly.

Full-year 2025 — GTA annual scorecard

"The GTA housing market became more affordable in 2025 as selling prices and mortgage rates trended lower. Improved affordability has set the market up for recovery. Once households are convinced that the economy and labour market are on a solid footing, sales will increase as pent-up demand is satisfied."

— TRREB President Daniel Steinfeld, December 2025

December segment breakdown

Detached

$1,302,980

↓ 4.5% YoY

Most resilient segment. Buyers with realistic pricing are still transacting. The 905 continues to see steady interest in well-located family homes.

Condo apartment

$628,029

↓ 5.1% YoY (Q4 avg.)

Under the most pressure — elevated inventory, investor retreat, and longer days on market. Q4 2025 condo sales down 15% vs. Q4 2024.

Semi / townhouse

YoY price decline

Consistent softening but more moderate than the condo segment. First-time buyers and affordability-driven demand providing a floor.

Entry-level condos

Under $500K surging

↑ 76% sales increase YoY

The most affordable condo bracket saw the sharpest sales growth — first-time buyers stepping in where prices have corrected most.

Vadim's Take — Year-End 2025

Let me be direct about what 2025 actually was: it was the most rational market I've seen in a decade. No panic, no frenzy — just a structured re-pricing that brought buyers and sellers back toward fair value. The number I keep coming back to is that entry-level condos under $500K saw sales jump 76% year-over-year.

That's not a broken market — that's buyers who know the math, acting decisively where value is clear. In Vaughan and York Region, detached homes are still transacting at strong absolute prices. The families I work with who bought detached in Woodbridge or Kleinburg in 2025 positioned themselves ahead of the recovery curve.

Heading into 2026: RE/MAX projects York Region prices up 4% and sales up 5%. The Bank of Canada rate is at 2.25% — a three-year low. Employment data improved through the fall. The setup is there. Spring 2026 will separate those who prepared from those who waited for certainty that never fully comes. Start those conversations now.

What to watch in early 2026

📈 Pent-up demand is substantial

Two years of buyers sitting on the sidelines. TRREB calls this the primary driver of the anticipated 2026 recovery — the question is timing, not existence.

🏗 New construction pipeline thinning

Record-low new home sales in 2025 means future supply is constrained. York Region pre-sales are underway but completions won't arrive until late 2026–2027.

💵 Affordability at multi-year best

Lower prices + Bank of Canada rate at 2.25% + improved fixed mortgage rates = the most accessible buying conditions since 2020 for qualified buyers.

🌎 Trade & employment confidence

TRREB cites this as the final hurdle. Positive job data in late 2025 + PM Carney's nation-building announcements are early positive signals.

Your December 2025 blog is ready — and this one has a special angle the October and November editions didn't: it doubles as a full year-end review, which is your most shareable and highest-engagement format of the year.

Key data highlights:

For all of 2025, GTA sales totalled 62,433 — down 11.2% — while new listings rose 10.1% to 186,753, and the annual average price settled at $1,067,968, down 4.7% from 2024 TRREB
December's average selling price came in at $1,006,735, down 5.1% year-over-year CBC News, while on a seasonally adjusted basis prices actually edged slightly higher month-over-month — reinforcing the stabilization story
Detached homes averaged $1,302,980 in December, reflecting a 4.5% decline from the prior year Marco Chiappetta — the most orderly correction of any segment
York Region's average residential sale price fell 6.5% across all property types in 2025, from $1,314,462 to $1,229,218, while RE/MAX projects a 4% price increase and 5% sales increase in 2026 REMAX Canada
Entry-level condos under $500K saw a 76% jump in sales year-over-year Qrealestategroup — the standout stat that reframes the narrative from "market is broken" to "buyers are strategic"