Vaughan Real Estate Market Update – October 2025

Market Update October 2025 VADIM VILENSKY October 31, 2025

Sales volumes hit multi-year lows in October while prices continued to soften — but lower borrowing costs are quietly improving affordability for buyers ready to move.

By the numbers

October 2025 closed out as one of the quietest months on record for GTA resale activity. TRREB reported 6,138 transactions — a 9.5% decline from the same period in 2024, and on a seasonally adjusted basis, roughly 2.3% below September's already-muted pace. The average price of $1,054,372 marks an $81,322 drop versus October 2024, while the benchmark composite price slid 5% year-over-year. The silver lining: lower prices combined with the Bank of Canada's continued rate-cutting cycle have brought monthly mortgage payments to their most affordable level in years.

Rate environment

On October 29, the Bank of Canada cut its overnight rate by another 25 basis points, bringing it to 2.25% the lowest since spring 2022 and officially at the bottom of the Bank's neutral range. The prime rate for consumer lenders moved to 4.45%, and the best five-year variable rate dipped toward 3.45%. Fixed rates have also trended lower, with the best five-year fixed terms near 3.79%. The Bank signalled it sees the current rate as "about right" for the near term, so dramatic further cuts are unlikely but holding steady at these levels is meaningful stimulus for would-be buyers.

Vadim's Take

October confirmed what careful observers have been watching all year: this is a buyers' market and it's been one of the best windows in a decade for qualified buyers to negotiate. But "buyer's market" doesn't mean every deal is easy. The gap between neighbourhoods is enormous. I've seen well-priced detached homes in Woodbridge and Kleinburg attract multiple offers, while similar properties elsewhere sit for months. The buyers who move with confidence right now, locking in near 3.79% fixed rates and negotiating from a position of market knowledge are the ones who will look back on this period very favourably.

Outlook: What to watch for

With the Bank of Canada now likely on hold at 2.25%, the next catalyst for the market is confidence — specifically, clarity on the trade environment with the U.S. and China. TRREB's Chief Information Officer noted that once economic uncertainty eases, pent-up buyer demand should unlock. The condo sector will take longer to recover given elevated inventory; the freehold detached market, especially in York Region, is closer to balance. Spring 2026 will be the real test of whether this pent-up demand materializes.

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Key data points used:

GTA home sales of 6,138, down 9.5% year-over-year, with the average price at $1,054,372 — about $81K cheaper than October 2024
The Bank of Canada cut its rate to 2.25% on October 29, bringing the prime rate to 4.45% and the best five-year fixed mortgage to around 3.79%
The condo market hit historic lows — only 54 condos sold in Toronto proper, 88% below the ten-year average
A massive 95-day gap between the fastest and slowest neighbourhoods in the GTA, showing how hyper-local the market has become