GTA Average Price Drops Below $1M for the First Time Since 2021 — Here's What It Means

VADIM VILENSKY January 31, 2026

GTA Average Price Drops Below $1M for the First Time Since 2021 — Here's What It Means

🏆 January 2026 delivered a landmark data point and a clear message: affordability is at its best in five years. For buyers who have been waiting, the window is open. For sellers, strategy has never mattered more.

GTA home sales (Jan.)

3,082

↓ 19.3% year-over-year

Average selling price

$973,289

↓ 6.5% vs. Jan. 2025

Active listings

17,975

↑ 8.1% year-over-year

January 2026 opened the year with a headline that cuts through the noise: the GTA average selling price fell to $973,289 — crossing below $1M for the first time in five years. Sales of 3,082 were down sharply year-over-year, partly driven by seasonal quiet and holiday carryover, while active listings climbed to 17,975, giving buyers meaningful inventory to choose from. Homes are averaging 45 days on market, up 21.6% — which translates directly into negotiating power, conditional offers, and time to make thoughtful decisions.

"Buyers will benefit from substantial choice in 2026, which will keep a lid on price growth and affordability in check, particularly in the first half of the year."

— TRREB Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer, February 2026

Regional breakdown — where the GTA stands

City of Toronto (416)

$948,698

1,074 sales in January. Core market showing renewed multiple-offer activity in the first-time buyer segment.

York Region

$618,000

Condo avg. — Freehold significantly higher. Detached still commanding premium. Inventory at ~7 months for condos.

905 condos

$551,166

Sales down 30.3% YoY — the weakest segment GTA-wide. Maximum buyer leverage in this category.

Peel Region

$929,058

609 sales. Affordability-driven demand, particularly townhomes and entry-level detached.

Vaughan & York Region spotlight

York Region is entering 2026 as a clear buyer's market trending toward balance. Detached homes remain the most coveted and resilient segment — single-family demand from move-up buyers and families continues to support values, particularly in Kleinburg, Maple, and established Woodbridge pockets. Condos have corrected most sharply, with some Vaughan units now dipping toward the $450,000 range — creating genuine first-time buyer entry points that didn't exist two years ago.

A standout on-the-ground signal: properties in the $1M–$2M range in Vaughan and the GTA are already attracting 5 to 10 competing offers in select cases — suggesting the widely held narrative of a uniformly slow market does not tell the full story. Well-priced, well-presented detached homes in desirable corridors are still generating competition. The opportunity gap between strategic sellers and reactive ones has never been wider.

TRREB 2026 official forecast

🏠 Sales forecast: 60,000–70,000

Activity expected to resemble 2025 levels in H1, with potential acceleration in H2 if consumer confidence improves and pent-up demand unlocks.

💲Price forecast: $1M–$1.03M avg.

Prices likely lower YoY in H1 2026, stabilizing in H2. First half remains the strongest window for buyers to negotiate.

👥 First-time buyers: 45% of intenders

Ipsos polling shows first-time buyers will be a key driver of recovery — particularly in entry-level condos and affordable townhomes.

📈 Confidence is the catalyst

Economic clarity on trade, sustained employment growth, and infrastructure investment are the three triggers TRREB cites for demand unlocking.

Vadim's Take

The sub-$1M headline will dominate the news cycle this month — and it should, because it's genuinely significant. But here's what the headline doesn't tell you: in Vaughan, detached homes are still selling in the $1.6M+ range. Multiple offers are returning on well-priced properties between $1M and $2M. The market is not uniform — it never is. What January confirms is that the correction window is deep and it is now. Buyers who move in H1 2026 with a clear strategy are buying into the best affordability conditions since 2020–2021. The TRREB forecast projects prices stabilizing in H2 — meaning the negotiating power available right now may not last through the spring. For sellers: January is the time to get your home positioned, not launched. The clients I'm working with who will win in spring 2026 are the ones starting conversations today.

Your January 2026 blog is ready — and this edition has the strongest single headline of the series so far. Here's the data story behind it:

What makes January 2026 the standout edition:

The average GTA selling price dropped to $973,289 — falling below the $1 million mark for the first time since January 2021 BNN Bloomberg, making it the most attention-grabbing data point in this entire blog series
There were 3,082 home sales in January 2026, down 19.3% year-over-year, while the HPI Composite benchmark was down 8% and active listings rose to 17,975 GlobeNewswire
Average days on market climbed to 45 days, up 21.6% year-over-year — giving buyers more time for conditions, inspections, and thoughtful decision-making Daryl King Team
905-region condos were the hardest hit segment, with sales down 30.3% year-over-year and an average price of just $551,166 Zoocasa
Some Vaughan condos have dropped to around $450,000 — creating first-time buyer entry points that didn't exist two years ago REMAX Canada
TRREB's 2026 forecast projects GTA sales between 60,000 and 70,000 homes and an average price of $1M–$1.03M, with first-time buyers expected to represent 45% of intending purchasers TRREB

The hidden gem in the data — flagged in Vadim's Take — is that despite the soft headline numbers, properties priced between $1M and $2M were already attracting 5 to 10 competing buyers in select cases Avenue Realty, showing the market is far from uniform.